Market signal
Every factor behind the head-wind / tail-wind call, how it is scored, and how much data stands behind it.
Whole market
Head-wind
Conditions are working against us, led by freight cost per kg.
Composite score -0.46 on a −1 (head-wind) to +1 (tail-wind) scale, across 1,497 shipments and 12 months.
DiversiTech
Neutral
Conditions are broadly flat — no clear head-wind or tail-wind.
Composite score 0.00 on a −1 (head-wind) to +1 (tail-wind) scale, across 91 shipments and 12 months.
Market-wide factors
Freight cost per kg
$0.34$/kg
Freight per kg moved +81.2% versus the prior period — head-wind.
Low confidence — only 6 data points behind this comparison.
Declared landed value per kg
$28.25$/kg
Declared value per kg moved +42.7% versus the prior period — head-wind.
Low confidence — only 6 data points behind this comparison.
Sourcing options
24suppliers/month
Active suppliers per month moved -1.4% — neutral.
Shipment flow
138shipments/month
Monthly shipment flow moved +7.3% — tail-wind.
| Factor | Method | Recent | Prior | Change | Data points | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freight cost per kg | Average freight cost per kg of the most recent months against the prior equal-length period. Cheaper freight scores as a tail-wind. | 0.34 | 0.18 | +81.2% | 6 | -1.00 |
| Declared landed value per kg | Declared customs value divided by weight, recent period against the prior one. Falling input value points to softening supplier pricing. | 28.25 | 19.80 | +42.7% | 6 | -1.00 |
| Sourcing options | Active suppliers shipping per month. More suppliers available means more negotiating leverage — a tail-wind. | 24.33 | 24.67 | -1.4% | 798 | -0.05 |
| Shipment flow | Shipments arriving per month. Steady or rising flow signals dependable supply; a sharp drop signals disruption. | 137.67 | 128.33 | +7.3% | 798 | 0.21 |
Each factor compares the most recent months in view against the prior equal-length period. The change is divided by a sensitivity band, capped at ±1, and signed so positive always means favourable. Comparisons with fewer than five data points are left unscored rather than presented as a trend. The composite is the average of the scored factors.
Verdict by importer
Conditions are working against us, led by freight cost per kg.
- Freight cost per kg-1.00
- Declared landed value per kgn/a
- Sourcing options-0.18
- Shipment flow-0.04
237 shipments in view
Conditions are working against us, led by freight cost per kg.
- Freight cost per kg-1.00
- Declared landed value per kgn/a
- Sourcing options-0.98
- Shipment flow-1.00
139 shipments in view
Conditions are broadly flat — no clear head-wind or tail-wind.
- Freight cost per kg-1.00
- Declared landed value per kg-1.00
- Sourcing options1.00
- Shipment flow1.00
91 shipments in view
Conditions are working against us, led by freight cost per kg.
- Freight cost per kg-1.00
- Declared landed value per kg0.00
- Sourcing options-0.18
- Shipment flow0.29
1,000 shipments in view
Conditions are working in our favour, led by sourcing options.
- Freight cost per kgn/a
- Declared landed value per kgn/a
- Sourcing options1.00
- Shipment flow1.00
30 shipments in view